When President Obama came to power, he brought with him a dream of a new beginning, which he shared with the world in Cairo. But even as he reaches out to the Muslim world, the divide between the people and those who lead them may confound his vision.
Iran has been embroiled in domestic turmoil since its contested June elections when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad preserved his position as president. The entrenched hard-line conservatives have cracked down on the more moderate reformers. Still, an outcry of dissident voices from among the top ranks of Iran's clerics confirms the consensus, if it ever existed, among the leadership is crumbling. Those in power face a choice of whether to stifle or accommodate the opposition. Recent behavior suggests they have already chosen to consolidate power amongst themselves by excluding the opposition forces. However, a gulf seems to be growing among the religious leadership that may pressure the political elite to capitulate.
As Obama seeks partnership with the Middle East, he must proceed cautiously. The Iranian government is slowly nearing the point where the populace may call its legitimacy into question. Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, longtime critic of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is leveling sharp criticism of the government in a way that may find resonance with Iranian youth. Rather than attacking the government for its dearth of democracy, Ayatollah Montazeri has been using his religious credentials to attack the government for its failure to adhere to Islamic principles. In the past, when responding to attacks leveled against it for its undemocratic methods, the government could resort to the excuse of religion. If it wasn't allowing its people to participate, it was at least governing by Islamic doctrine. Ayatollah Montazeri undercuts this excuse. His accusations chip away at the government's claim its grounding is in faith. The Islamic Republic of Iran, has now come under fire not only for not being a republic, but also for not being Islamic.
Ayatollah Montazeri may be able to succeed in doing what others, including Mir Hussein Mousavi, one of Iran's presidential candidates who failed to unseat Ahmadinejad, couldn't thus far. He may be able undermine the government by targeting the supreme leader and delinking him from his source of power, Islam. Reform in Iran will must originate from above with the clerics. So Ayatollah Montazeri and others like him represent the best possible chance for true reform. Still, it is a question of time. Is this the right time? How long can Ayatollah Khamenei maintain his grip on power in the face of opposition from the upper echelons of the clerics? Iran may be on the brink of reform, or it may not be. Hardliners are calling for the arrest of Mousavi for his allegations that the elections were corrupted by vote fraud. But doing so would likely result in street protests. Ayatollah Montazeri has maintained that Iran's government cannot achieve legitimacy without popular support. If the public continues to agitate, the government will have to respond (favorably or not).
So what do Iran's domestic troubles mean for U.S. foreign policy? America's problems with Iran have been with its leadership, which has refused to compromise with the West. A change in U.S. leadership and Obama's friendlier overtures may encourage Iran to re-evaluate its position. But a change in Iran's leadership from hardliners to reformers would likely be even more conducive to negotiations. As the Obama administration opens itself to talks with Iran, it must pay attention to the messages it sends to the Iranian people. Political successes on the world stage will legitimate Iranian leadership in the eyes of its public. Thus, the U.S. must avoid unintentionally damage the opposition movement when striking deals with the current leaders.
Obama must be aware of the domestic implications of agreements dealing with nuclear weapons and let them influence the way forward. In fact, Iran's internal problems could serve U.S. interests. If reform does bring the moderates to power, the U.S. stands to gain a more conciliatory party at the negotiating table. If the conservatives maintain power though, the U.S should take advantage of the weakened position of Iranian leaders, who will be looking for victories in the international arena. The U.S. must try to define victory for Iran as a mutually beneficial agreement rather than Iran standing up to the superpower. Hopefully, public pressure in Iran will either bring reformers to power, or force the hardliners to reform themselves. Still, Obama has to deal with whatever Iran happens to present at any given time. As he does so, the administration must keep an eye on the future and on the possibilities offered by new Iranian regime.
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