Born at the cusp of 1980s, I remember nothing of the Cold War or its conclusion. Yes, like most, I saw footage of the fall of the Berlin Wall in high school. I have studied the conflict in history and political science classes. But I never experienced the fear, real and raw, that the world itself could be shattered at slightest misstep by either side. For my parents and my grandparents, the tension that several times drove the two superpowers to the brink of war is a distant but lingering memory. Still, it is a memory that words can only go so far in explaining.
Now it seems this generation may have its own Cold War. Of course, the international stage is markedly different than it was even at the previous war's closure. For one, Russia is not the goliath that the Soviet Union once purported to be-at least not yet. Its economy is underdeveloped but improving. Since its financial collapse almost a decade ago, recovery has been remarkably swift. The export of Russia's abundant natural resources has fueled this economic revitalization. In the coming years the benefits accrued from oil production will only multiply. It is a simple matter of supply and demand. As the demand for oil continues to grow, which it will, and as petroleum reserves are further depleted, which they will be, the price of the commodity will be driven higher and higher, increasing oil revenue. As if we really needed another reason to go green.
But as America is addicted to oil, Russia is dependent upon oil revenue. If demand for oil were to suddenly plummet, Russia would find itself in a situation similar to an oil spill. The sticky situation cannot be avoided for ever anyway. But while Russia will run out of oil eventually, as it draws nearer to that point and supplies dwindle, prices will be pushed skyward, resulting in significantly increased revenue and international clout in the period right before it has nothing left. While the precise path to the end will most certainly be a determining factor of states' relative power, the point to be recognized is that no matter the way the end comes, it will come. Nonrenewable resources are, as their name suggests, in finite supply. Russia cannot, as it does now, rely on its prosperous oil production forever. As long as its power is tied to such a volatile market, it is vulnerable.
Recently, Russia did itself a great disservice by intervening militarily in Georgia, which dramatically reversed foreign investment. The result was that as Russia advanced on its neighbor, several billion dollars in capital retreated from home. This is an important lesson for Russia. In this age of globalization, actions that isolate it from its international counterparts have far more tangible consequences than words of condemnation. Beyond the economic cost, the political losses may have even longer lasting effects. With a rebellious region of its own, Chechnya, recognizing regions in another country as independent is hypocritical. In the past, Russia has always deferred on such issues, claiming that they are the internal affairs of sovereign states.
Breaking from its usual position may indicate something more. Recognition was not an accident. It is not as if Russia had an epiphany that all people should have the right to self-rule. So why take an action that can so easily be turned against you? I think it has to be more than just revenge for the West's recognition of Kosovo. It would appear that Russia is trying to reestablish its former sphere of influence on a reduced scale. Most conflicts of the current era are not wars of territory, which I believed to be something of the past, but wars of ideas or culture. Territorial conquest is outdated. If Russia tries to revive such a practice, the international community will be required to take a stand.
Still, it is in everyone's best interest to avoid a fight with Russia, which can be a helpful partner such as in the issue of Iran. Of course, if Russia is uncooperative, then any potential influence it could exercise in the region will be irrelevant. While Russian officials indicate that preventing another Cold War depends on American action, their statements portray Russia as more confident and prepared than she really is. This is not to say the threat of a Cold War renewed is not real. As a result of the recent Russian action of recognizing those two regions in Georgia, a nuclear pact that was in the works now seems certain to be scrapped. Certainly the billions that losing the deal will cost Russia will not go unfelt. But if in punishing Russia, we simultaneously punish ourselves and the rest of the world, I believe we ought to reconsider.
As I said from the outset, my knowledge of the Cold War is only indirect. But I imagine the fear of the time had less to do with the fact that our rival was the Soviet Union and more to do with what they possessed-nuclear weapons. The problem today is not that the Russians are unreceptive to our demands and more willing to confront us with their own divergent demands, though that certainly complicates the problem. The problem is that nuclear weapons continue to exist, and most concerning, that they continue to spread. Our first priority must be to address nuclear proliferation. We cannot compromise combating proliferation to sanction Russia for its rogue behavior; there are other ways to do so without shooting ourselves in the foot at the same time.
First, we should move to expand NATO and quickly. With the protection of the alliance, states will be less vulnerable to Russian intervention. Russia may be willing to take on Georgia, but it will be far more hesitant to challenge the entire North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Second, and as much has been said on the subject I will keep it short, we need to end our addiction to oil. By relying on alternative energy sources, we can turn the tables on the oil producers that have too much control over our economy.
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