Column: Quick reactions to the men’s basketball NCAA tournament bracket

With the announcement of the 2025 men’s basketball NCAA tournament, there are many things to know, as both a criticism of the work that the tournament committee did and also a guide to filling out the best bracket possible.

North Carolina

The first and biggest takeaway from Sunday night was the inclusion of the University of North Carolina (UNC). The Tar Heels managed a 1-13 record against tournament-caliber teams this season.

Media members felt that UNC was simply not worthy of an at-large bid. However, the committee, led by current UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham, thought otherwise.

“If the criteria for the NCAA tournament in terms of getting an at-large bid is to beat other NCAA tournament teams,” CBS sports analyst Jon Rothstein said, “how in the world could North Carolina get an at-large bid over Indiana and over West Virginia?”

West Virginia

Rothstein’s quote highlights another shocking move, this time by omission.

West Virginia University had 243 out of 249 bracketologists projecting it to go dancing according to bracketmatrix.com, a website documenting projections for the tournament. However, the Mountaineers were the first team off the list.

For reference, North Carolina had 57 projected brackets with it above the cut line. Despite wins over Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Iowa State, West Virginia didn’t make the list.

Mid-majors

Unfortunately, brand recognition is seemingly a large part of why teams made the tournament this year, with 14 of the 16 teams from the Southeastern Conference making the bracket.

Lackluster resumes from teams like UNC and the University of Texas got in over very deserving mid-majors, such as 28-win University of California Irvine or a Boise State University team that made it to the Mountain West conference championship with 24 wins.

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In fact, according to the final seed line ranking that the NCAA tournament committee released, University of California San Diego, Drake University and Virginia Commonwealth University (VCU) all would not have made it to the Big Dance this year without winning their conference tournaments.

UC San Diego and VCU both had a KenPom ranking – a predictive metric used by the committee – within the top 36, and Drake went a staggering 30-3 to tie for the second most wins in college basketball this season.

Their absence in the bracket is stunningly disappointing for mid-major fans across the country.

Louisville

One notable misseeding by the committee was the University of Louisville.

The Cardinals ended their season ranked 13th in the AP Poll, and bracketmatrix.com had a pool of almost 250 bracketologists projecting Louisville to end up as a sixth-seed on average.

With the Cardinals coming off an ACC championship appearance, most advanced metrics pinned them as a top 25 team. This certainly contrasts the committee's decision to rank first year head coach Pat Kelsey’s squad as an eighth-seed.

No. 5/No. 12 upsets

When looking for an easy upset to pick, the most common ones are between fifth and 12th seed teams. Four of the last five NCAA tournaments have featured a five/12 upset, with 2024 featuring two.

The glaring pick for an upset on this seed line is the Colorado State University Rams over the University of Memphis Tigers. According to DraftKings, the Rams open the game as a 2.5-point favorite over the Tigers.

Colorado State has been one of the hottest teams in the country with zero losses in the last month, a nine-game winning streak and a Mountain West tournament championship that catapulted the Rams into the tournament.

Combine this with a Memphis team that bracketmatrix.com believed was expected to get an eighth-seed (meaning it was overseeded), and this matchup seems ripe for an upset.

Gonzaga

Looking for a lower seed to go far? Gonzaga University is beloved by almost all advanced statistics, despite its status as a No. 8 seed.

The Bulldogs currently have a NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking of eight, and with a flurry of close losses at the beginning of the season combined with a luck rating that is in the bottom 20 in the country, this is a team that can make some noise.

Head coach Mark Few has made it to the NCAA tournament in all 25 years he has been at Gonzaga. Watch out for the ’Zags!

Xavier

Just when it appeared that no teams in the tri-state area would make the NCAA Tournament, the Xavier University Musketeers managed to sneak their way in as one of the final four teams included in this year’s edition.

After starting their season 14-10, the Musketeers rattled off seven-straight wins before falling to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. At 21-11, Xavier plays the Texas Longhorns, a rematch of the last game Xavier played in the tournament: a 83-71 loss in 2023’s Sweet 16.

wiesemsm@miamioh.edu