Cincinnati Reds looking to move up NL Central ranks in 2025

The Cincinnati Reds entered last season coming off an 82-80 campaign in 2023, including a 12-game winning streak. A resurgence of youth, including adding Jeimer Candelario and Nick Martinez, set the Reds up to surpass their preseason projected total of 81 wins in 2024.

However, injuries to Matt McLain, who accumulated 3.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in just 89 games, and projected starting first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand quickly depleted the depth the Reds had accumulated with season-ending injuries.

Projected starting centerfielder TJ Friedl, who accumulated 3.8 WAR in 2024, played only 85 games after breaking his wrist in spring training and became largely ineffective.

Additionally, projected starting third baseman Noelvi Marte was suspended for 80 games for using performance-enhancing drugs and struggled mightily when he returned. With a starting rotation marred by injury, things fell apart.

Losing this much talent to inefficiency, injury and suspension depleted the roster. Despite a season where shortstop Elly De La Cruz put up just the fifth 20-homer and 60 stolen base season in history, the Reds finished 77-85, leading to the firing of manager David Bell.

The biggest holes on the roster coming into the offseason were the outfield and designated hitter, despite the attrition in the infield they experienced last season. Collectively, the Reds were the third-worst outfield by cumulative WAR, with Will Benson having the worst batting average in the sport with a paltry .187.

Additionally, the Reds were last in WAR from the designated hitter slot, with primarily bench players like Nick Martini and Mike Ford getting hundreds of plate appearances.

Due to these deficiencies in the outfield, the Reds signed outfielder Austin Hays, a 2023 All-Star with the Baltimore Orioles, to a one-year deal. Hays’ 2024 was marred by a kidney infection, but he looks to return to his previous form and resemble the player who slugged 54 home runs from 2021 to 2023.

Another bounceback candidate Cincinnati is hoping to capitalize on is Gavin Lux. The former Los Angeles Dodger became a staple in the middle infield for the World Series champs. However, after signing two middle infielders this offseason, Lux was deemed expendable and traded.

Lux struggled in the first half of his 2024 campaign coming off a torn ACL, but hit over .300 after the All-Star break, signaling a potential re-emergence of a key cog in the Dodgers’ extended period of success.

The final major player added for the Reds was former Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Brady Singer. In the same way Lux was made expendable because of his role, second baseman Jonathan India had the same fate.

India, a former Reds first-round pick and Rookie of the Year, was a leader in the clubhouse because of his relative experience compared to the roster’s youth. However, after seeing just three pitchers throw over 115 innings, the Reds needed durable starting pitching.

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Singer has averaged 164 innings a season over the last three years. Because he threw at a reasonable 4.15 ERA during that stretch, he was traded for India.

Cincinnati’s front office made several other minor additions, including trading reliever Fernando Cruz, who made 127 appearances over the last two seasons, for catcher and former Yankee Jose Trevino. Replacing Cruz, reliever Scott Barlow was brought in on a one-year contract. Equally as durable, he had averaged 67 appearances a season since 2021 with a 3.21 ERA in the span.

In addition to the pitching additions, Martinez surprisingly accepted his one-year, $21 million qualifying offer to return to the Reds. This gives the team a pitcher who can pitch from the bullpen and as a starter at a very high level.

The largest addition of the offseason for a small-market ballclub. Luring Terry Francona, the former Cleveland Guardians manager and two-time World Series champion with the Boston Red Sox, out of retirement as manager was a significant move. His baseball and championship acumen and vast experience as a manager make the Reds a massive asset in the clubhouse.

When I wrote this preview last offseason, I was very optimistic. I saw a team that overachieved, filled to the brim with youth and figured their veteran additions would elevate them to the next level. However, my optimism failed to account for the injuries and regression that plagued this team.

This time, however, I see a clear path for the Reds to compete for a National League Central title and a trip to the playoffs. With a higher floor and better ceiling, the Reds have a chance to be one of the premier small-market teams and make some noise in a division without a clear alpha.

wiesemsm@miamioh.edu