Following Donald Trump’s election to the presidency, economist and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman issued a dire warning to the nation. In his eyes, the election of Donald Trump would spell global economic disaster.
In a Times column, Krugman wrote: “If the question is when markets will recover [from the effects of Trump’s victory], a first-pass answer is never…We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.”
Krugman’s words of doom and gloom were alarming for a large number of people. Trump is, undeniably, a destabilizing figure, so for many it made sense that he would destabilize the global economy if elected to the presidency. Luckily, Krugman was completely wrong in his predictions. In fact, the opposite of Krugman’s predictions has become reality; under Trump, the economy is booming.
Trump’s presidency has been a blessing for the stock market, which has long been cited as an indicator of economic health. Since election day, the S&P 500 has swelled almost 25 percent. Comparably, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has skyrocketed to near 25,000 points, a near 35 percent increase since election day . Both indexes have repeatedly reached all-time highs under Trump’s young presidency.
Trump has promised to deliver at least 3 percent GDP growth. Economists scoffed at this promise, claiming that it couldn’t be done. What has happened the past two quarters under President Trump? You guessed it, GDP growth over 3 percent. This trend shows no signs of slowing.
This is a welcome change from the anemic GDP growth of the Obama administration – Obama was the first president since the Great Depression not to achieve a year of at least 3 percent GDP growth.
The unemployment rate has also continued to plunge, and now sits at 4.1 percent, the lowest in 17 years. According to projections from Goldman Sachs economists, that rate will drop even lower by 2019, to just 3.5 percent.
Consumer confidence is soaring, and has risen to levels not seen in the U.S. since November 2000. Manufacturing confidence is also growing; according to the National Association of Manufacturers, more than 93 percent of manufacturers feel positive about their economic outlook – the highest in the survey’s 20-year history.
By nearly every measure, the American economy is thriving. Oddly enough, this has all occurred without any significant legislative accomplishments. The tenants of Trump’s legislative agenda, an Obamacare repeal, tax reform and an infrastructure package, are all still held up in Congress.
So, what is driving this historic economic growth? Trump is repealing burdensome regulations, and is bringing back a pro-business, pro-growth attitude to the White House. This all translates to a much healthier American business environment, an environment that greatly benefits American workers.
With the passage of a final tax reform package before New Year’s seemingly imminent, the economy is only poised to grow at even more impressive rates. Lowering taxes for everyone, individuals and business alike, will spur even more domestic business investment and consumer spending.
While Trump’s Twitter antics and persistent disputes with the media may steal the oxygen of nearly every news cycle, those components of his presidency aren’t that important in the long run. To an independent swing state voter, shouting matches on Fox and CNN don’t mean much, but a growing economy, lower taxes and a vibrant job market do.