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Kasich poised to be a Republican nominee

By Andrew Geisler, Columnist

According to Andrew

During much of his first term as Ohio's governor, it looked like John Kasich would get a credible challenge for his seat in 2014. Then Cuyahoga County executive Ed FitzGerald started running his campaign. This week, a poll has Kasich up 30-points (59-29) - an unprecedented number in a purple swing state like Ohio.

Even in the modern media environment where campaign activity is essential, FitzGerald probably would have been better off channeling Ohioans William McKinley and Warren G. Harding and conducting a front-porch campaign and begging off attention.

Highlights of the parade of horribles that has been FitzGerald's campaign include the news that he was found in a parked car at 4:30 AM in 2012 with a woman who was not his wife in Westlake, he drove without a regular Ohio driver's license for ten years until 2012 and was forced to have his first running mate drop from the ticket due to tax issues back in December.

"Kasich's tough. But Kasich works," as one of his ad campaigns says, smells pretty strongly of Iowa. As we know, when someone has tried it before (as Kasich did in 2000), they likely believe they can, and want to be, president. And much of his political positioning indicates a serious interest in running in 2016. A blowout win in a swing state will do a lot to help his chances.

Kasich may be the poster-child for the fiscally squishy; "progressive-lite technocracy of compassionate conservatism," as conservative writer Ben Domenech terms it. But if Kasich finds success in the 2016 field running on his record as governor, it could tell us a lot about the status of the conservative movement.

Some may say Kasich is simply the heartland Jon Huntsman of this cycle-the guy who talks down to his party because they're insufficiently pragmatic (read liberal). This strain of thought had already emerged in the right-leaning press, where outlets like The Federalist write anti-Kasich pieces like one from May called "Why John Kasich is the Media's Favorite Republican Governor."

This is not meant as a compliment. The piece slams Kasich for expanding Medicaid, and for questioning the morality of his opponents on the issue with rhetoric like this: "when you die and get to the meeting with St. Peter, he's probably not gonna ask you much about what you did about keeping government small, but he's going to ask you what you did for the poor."

Without addressing the merits of the arguments, it's unquestionably true that Kasich, by positioning himself as the compassionate conservative in the heartland, has carved out an intriguing space for himself in national Republican politics.

Still, due to the Affordable Care Act's unpopularity with all Republicans, it is possible that all it will take to eliminate Governor Kasich from real contention for the nomination is for someone like Senators Rand Paul or Ted Cruz to look at Kasich on a debate stage in Iowa after a compassionate conservative pro-Medicaid expansion riff and say "John Kasich is the most liberal Republican on this stage."

With that tag, it could be the end; that is, if it sticks. The problem is Kasich is a well-known budget hawk, and vigorous in defending the right to life and traditional marriage - all issues that are huge with the heartland GOP crowd.

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As we know, he's willing to employ unabashedly religious rhetoric and as House Budget Committee Chairman the last time we balanced the federal budget, he's got strong fiscal credentials.

He also actually enjoys budgeting. Putting in a mid-budget review bill in Ohio's normal biennial process and getting deeply involved in the process. This is an excellent interest and area of competence for the federal government's chief executive. Even if he's not perfectly pure on fiscal matters (see Medicaid expansion) at least he's actually been in the arena.

There's not much we can be sure about when it comes to 2016, but it's safe to say people will want someone who is more substance than style since trying the other way didn't go so well for the last eight years.

The GOP has a lot of interesting candidates to offer, from Senators like Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, Rand Paul, and Ted Cruz or Governors like Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal, and Jeb Bush. But few of those listed have carved out such an interesting space for themselves in the race as our very own governor Kasich. Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but Kasich's strategy and impending win could make him a surprise front-runner for the 2016 Republican nomination.