Can the MAC become the Mountain West of the Midwest?

Kevin McCune

Can the MAC become the Mountain West of the Midwest?

 

The landscape of college football is changing. For years the sport has been dominated by the six Bowl Championship Series (BCS) conferences, but a few stubborn schools out west have refused to accept their role as "smalltime players" in the college football world, and year after year they have found a way to continue to climb the ladder and challenge the big boys with consistent success and determination.

With the news of even more potential college football realignment this summer and possible huge power shifts in the college football world, it's time the Mid-American Conference (MAC) takes note and brings that stubborn attitude to the Midwest so as to not be left behind.

Technically Miami and all of the other schools in the MAC are Division I college football teams. But realistically, Miami and Toledo's chances of ever getting to play in a Division I national championship are about as good as Division II schools like Montana and Appalachian State. In other words, zero chance.

Certainly Division I means more money and revenue, but when it comes to striving for the glory of an undefeated season, what's the reward for a team in the MAC — the GMAC Bowl, the International Bowl, the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl? An undefeated season for a school like Ohio State means a more than likely trip to a national championship and an undefeated season for one of Miami's biggest rivals, Cincinnati, means a trip to a BCS bowl game.

There are 120 Division I schools in college football, and every year only about half (of those schools in BCS conferences), 66 to be exact, can have any realistic hope for reaching a BCS game or national championship. Add to that the four little schools out west that are writing their own rules (we'll get to them later), and that makes it 70 out of 120 schools that hope to have a shot at a title. When you take out the 20 or so BCS schools that are rarely competitive, however, the number is then reduced to 50 schools that hope to have a shot at a title or BCS game.

Experts will argue that a team with Miami's strength of schedule does not stack up to teams in BCS conferences, and you know what, they're right. As unfortunate as it is to admit, when it comes to football the MAC is a relatively weak conference. Rivals.com recently came out with a preseason top 120 team countdown. The countdown ranked every team in college football from 1 to 120. Using that information I compiled the average team ranking for each Division I conference, and here are the results:

 

Sun Belt…97

MAC…92

WAC…81

CUSA…77

MWC…65

ACC…47

Big Ten…46

Big 12…44

Big East…44

Pac-Ten…42

SEC…36

 

From that list it's easy to see where the MAC and Miami currently stand in college football. With four teams ranked outside of the top 100 (including Miami at 116) and the second lowest average for team rankings, it's clear the conference must do something to become more competitive.

I believe that answer can be found in the Mountain West Conference (MWC). Every college football fan knows that for a better part of the last decade, the MWC has been the most powerful non-BCS conference, and with plans to add Boise State, Nevada and Fresno State in the future, the loss of Utah to the Pac-Ten shouldn't hurt them at all. The MWC even has a realistic chance at becoming the seventh BCS conference.

The automatic bowl bids for the MAC include the aforementioned GMAC Bowl, International Bowl and Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The automatic bowl bids for the MWC are the Maaco Las Vegas Bowl, SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl, Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl and the Roady's Humanitarian Bowl. The list of automatic bowl bids for the MWC is just as unimpressive as the MAC's, and yet somehow almost every year a team out of the MWC, or future MWC member Boise State, becomes a BCS buster.

In 2005, Utah became the first MWC team in a BCS bowl, beating Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl, 35-7. In the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, Boise State had perhaps the biggest BCS upset of all time, beating Oklahoma 43-42 in a barrage of trick plays that ended in one of the most famous marriage proposals in sports history. In 2009, Utah beat an Alabama team that would go on to win the national championship the following year in the Sugar Bowl 31-17. In 2010, two non-BCS conference teams squared off for the first time ever in a BCS game, with Texas Christian University (TCU) topping Boise State 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl.

Hold on a second before you say, "Whoa, whoa, the Mountain West is a bigger conference with bigger schools and bigger programs, the MAC couldn't possibly emulate their success." Give me a chance to prove you wrong.

After researching enrollment rates at universities in both conferences by using information found at stateuniversity.com, I found that the MAC actually has almost 100,000 more students enrolled in their universities than the MWC. Just for fun I also compared the MAC to arguably the most dominant division in college football, the Southeastern Conference (SEC), and found that just by comparing the size of the universities in the conferences, the MAC is a lot closer to the SEC than you may think. 

 

MAC

Akron…21,882

Ball State…20,030

Bowling Green…19,108

Buffalo…27,823

Central Michigan…26,710

Eastern Michigan…22,950

Kent State…22,697

Miami…16,329

Northern Ill…25,313

Ohio…20,610

Temple…33,865

Toledo…19,374

Western Michigan…24,841

 

Total Conference

Enrollment = 301,532

 

MWC

Air Force…4,524

BYU…34,185

Colorado State…27,636

New Mexico…25,721

San Diego State…33,441

TCU…8,865

UNLV…27,912

Utah…30,511

Wyoming…13,203

 

Total Conference

Enrollment= 205,998

 

SEC

Alabama…23,838

Arkansas…17,926

Auburn…23,547

Florida…50,912

Georgia…33,959

Kentucky…26,382

LSU…29,925

Mississippi…15,220

Mississippi State…16,206

South Carolina…27,390

Tennessee…28,901

Vanderbilt…11,607

 

Total Conference

Enrollment = 305,813

 

So what is it that makes the MWC so much more competitive than the MAC and what can the MAC do to imitate the MWC's success? I believe there are four main staples that set the MWC apart from other mid-major conferences. They include commitment by the coaches to build the program, recruiting smart, scheduling smart and an unbalanced division with top-heavy talent.

 

Coaches' Commitment

How many household names are currently coaching in MAC schools? It's hard to think of any because most coaches see the MAC as a springboard to bigger and better things.  Miami even celebrates this perception by calling its program the "Cradle of Coaches."

Now how many household names can you name from the MWC? Do names like Gary Patterson, Bronco Mendenhall, Ken Whittingham, and if you include Boise State, Chris Peterson come to mind? Chances are you've heard of one of if not all of these guys, and the one thing they all have in common is that they've all had opportunities to leave their respective universities but have chosen to stay.

In order for the MAC to reach the level of the MWC, they will need to find coaches committed to not only winning, but also staying at their schools. When the job is seen as a destination, it can also pay off big in recruiting.

 

Smart Recruiting

When a kid commits to a MAC school, chances are he knows that if the team is good (or bad) he won't be graduating under the same coach who recruited him. When Gary Patterson says the only job he wants is to coach at is TCU, it gives recruits a sense of comfort, knowing that he will most likely be their coach for their four- or five-year college career.

Another key to smart recruiting is to go after the three-star kids in your own state. Most major universities such as Ohio State target four-star and five-star guys, while many in-state three-star prospects go without scholarship offers from the big boys. According to scout.com, TCU already has ten three-star recruits from Texas committed for their 2011 recruiting class and had seven in their class last year. Miami currently has no three-star recruits from Ohio committed for this year, and only had one last year.

Many MAC schools are also reluctant to go after many junior college players. The MWC has been successful at targeting junior college players for years. Marvin White was a junior college safety in TCU's 2007 recruiting class. He has since gone on to the NFL playing for the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions. Matt Asiata was a junior college running back who played an essential role in helping Utah upset Alabama in that 2009 Sugar Bowl. One of Utah's defensive leaders from that team, Robert Johnson, was also a junior college player and was drafted last year by the Tennessee Titans.

Developing players goes hand-in-hand with good recruiting.  A kid may play a certain position in high school, but coaches have to be able to effectively project where a prospect will play the best at the next level.

Take Jerry Hughes for instance. Hughes was a two-star running prospect coming out of high school in Texas. Many teams didn't offer him because they didn't think he could be a running back in college. TCU offered him a scholarship, however, and using his quickness and lateral moves he learned as a running back in high school, one of the best defensive ends in the country was born. The Indianapolis Colts selected Hughes in the first round of last year's draft.

Hughes' former teammate, Jason Phillips, is another good example. According to rivals.com, Phillips was recruited to TCU as a 5' 11" 185 pound quarterback, but graduated as a 6'1" 244 pound linebacker who led the team in tackles three out of his four years there, and is currently a backup to Ray Lewis on the Baltimore Ravens.

Paul Kruger is Phillips' teammate on the Ravens. He was a second round draft pick at outside linebacker in the 2009 draft. Kruger attended Utah where he was recruited as a two-star 6'6" 240 pound quarterback, but eventually became a dominating defensive end. Future MWC member Boise State is no slouch when it comes to developing players either. According to rivals.com, Ryan Clady was recruited as a two-star offensive lineman whose biggest offer came from Boise State. Now he's a Pro-Bowl offensive tackle for the Denver Broncos.

           

Smart Scheduling

To open the season Miami will face the University of Florida. This game will get Miami a nice payday and some national attention, but is it smart scheduling? Teams from the MWC are usually masters at smart scheduling. They schedule BCS opponents, but usually they're opponents they think they have a good shot at beating and often times their opponents are on down years.

Let's examine some of the MWC teams' biggest non-conference games from the last few years starting with TCU. In 2005, TCU beat an Oklahoma team that would end up going 8-4 that year (8-4 is a down year for Oklahoma). In 2006, the Horned Frogs' biggest non-conference win came against an 8-5 Texas Tech team. They lost to Texas in 2007, but beat a 3-9 Baylor team and a 4-8 Stanford team. In 2008, they lost to Oklahoma but beat a 5-7 Stanford team. In 2009, they beat a bad 3-9 Virginia team and a slightly above average 9-5 Clemson team.

In 2008 and 2009, Boise State had one challenging non-conference game against Oregon. They follow that up again this year with only one challenge against Virginia Tech.

In 2007, Utah handled dominating non-conference BCS foes such as a 6-7 UCLA team and a 6-6 Louisville team. In their undefeated 2008 season, the Utes downed their hardest non-conference opponent, the 3-9 Michigan Wolverines. They followed that up last year in 2009 by once again beating a bad Louisville team that finished the season 4-9.

The MWC shows us that while you need to put some BCS teams on the schedule to beef it up, you should shoot for mediocre-bad level teams or big programs in down years.

 

Unbalanced Division with Top-Heavy Talent

 

Parody does not breed success. Name all of the teams in the MWC. If you're not a huge fan of one school or you don't live out west and you're just the casual college football fan, chances are you can't. But I'd bet you'd be able to name Utah, TCU, Brigham Young University (BYU) and maybe, maybe Air Force or Wyoming. You'd also probably know that Boise State will be joining the conference soon as well.

You see the MWC is a top-heavy league where the most talented teams usually dominate year-in and year-out. In the last seven years only TCU, BYU and Utah have been named the conference champ. Compare that to the MAC, which has had five conference champs in that same time span.

Too many mediocre teams usually means no standout good teams, and that's where the MAC is as a conference right now with an average team rank of 92.

So what teams have the potential to become the Utah's of the Midwest? Right now, based on recent and consistent conference and bowl success, I'd have to say (as much as it pains me) Ohio University, Central Michigan and Temple, with Miami certainly on the outside looking in it at this point.

Is it possible to bring the MWC's format for success to the Midwest? If it is, then who knows, maybe one day we'll see a MWC team squaring off against a MAC team in a BCS bowl … as for now, those days are only a dream.